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you

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here today

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so I think it's safe to say that we want

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more data on the habitability of planets

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around other stars and that we

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eventually want to search such planets

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for signs of life I'm going to talk

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today about one mission that is being

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studied by NASA in advance of the next

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astrophysics to Cadle survey and the

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United in the United States that has the

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goal of doing that but before I get

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there let me just for the folks that are

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in the astrobiology audience that may

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not be familiar with the decadal survey

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process every 10 years the astrophysics

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community here in the United States

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prioritizes the science that they think

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should be driving the following decade

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of of things done by NASA and by NSF and

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I believe by the Department of Energy as

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well in the field of astronomy and

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astrophysics and habit of exoplanets and

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habitable exoplanets is under the

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purview of the astrophysics decadal

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surveys and so the missions that would

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be studied in advance of that would be

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the ones that would be up for

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consideration for the next decades worth

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of missions that's also important

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important for the time scale because any

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of the missions that would be

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prioritized in that a Kittel survey

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probably wouldn't start we wouldn't

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start building them until 2025 till the

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mid-2020s and they probably would not

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launch until the 2030s so this is stuff

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that we're thinking about far in the

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future but the time is now to start

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prioritizing them and I'm not going to

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suggest what all of you should do in

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terms of what types of papers are what

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you should promote in the decadal survey

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but if you're interested in the search

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for life and in your if you're

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interested in the search for habitable

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planets I think as a community of

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astrobiologist it behooves us to be

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involved in that process as it occurs so

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without further ado this is have X this

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is one of the four here's the had X team

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I'll note that there are astrobiologists

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bona fide astrobiologists with degrees

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as such on the team and people that are

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well published in the astrobiology

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literature ties not in this picture but

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because I think he wasn't at the

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particular face-to-face meeting we also

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have Leslie Rodgers and Sara Seager is

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one of our co-chairs they've all been

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publishing astrobiology stuff so the

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goals have had the havok study are to

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develop an optimal Mich optimal mission

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concept for characterizing the nearest

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planetary systems and detecting and

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characterizing a handful of XO words so

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this is I'll get into this in a minute

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but this is unlike levar which is trying

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to get a

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statistical sampling of XO earths or

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potential XO words how about the school

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is basically how big do we have to be

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before we can get a few of them and then

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given that optimal concept maximize the

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general astrophysics science potential

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without sacrificing the primary

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exoplanet science goals and so what

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that's saying is we will optimize this

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for exoplanet science and then find out

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what kinds of other astrophysics we can

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do once we've optimized for the

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exoplanet science case so it's not just

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about exoplanets but it is the main

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architectural trades are primarily but

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not exclusively driven by exoplanets so

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if you've heard about leVoir which

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stands for the large UV optical infrared

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mission that's another thing that's

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being studied in advance of the

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astrophysics dakedo survey that would

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have a very similar science case it's

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looking for habitable worlds it's going

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to try to characterize them

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spectroscopically it's also going to do

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a lot of general astrophysics the differ

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we get the question what's the

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difference between the two well they

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have two a slight difference in in how

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they're balancing the primary science

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goals but they have the same primary

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science goals they're both going to do

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have it'll habitable exoplanets and bio

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signatures and a broad range of general

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astrophysics the two architectures will

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be different in focus as I mentioned

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before whereas Lavar is kind of balanced

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between exoplanet habitability searches

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and astrophysics have x is defined by

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optimizing for the exoplanet science

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case first and then doing the best we

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can give in that optimization for the

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rest of astrophysics and there's also

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different levels of ambition between the

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two missions leVoir is trying to be big

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and ambitious and how X is trying to be

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more cost constrained and less

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technically risky but there so the way

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the analogy I give here is like and I

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apologize to the vegetarians in the room

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I just don't have the right analogy for

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this for a vegetarian menu but you can

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think of it as like the slider you know

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there's going to be for our Co textures

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study between the two missions you can

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think about the slider the cheeseburger

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you know the the sirloin steak and and

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like the filet mignon and if dr.

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Grunsfeld has his way and we assembled

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something in space that'd be the prime

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rib at the top of the menu and and and

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the goal really here is is that

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continuum is intentional strategically

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as an exoplanet scientist I'm happy that

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we're going to have a range of options

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presented to the de kado survey because

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the Cadle surveys are unpredictable and

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how they're going to operate we're

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talking about a large sample size of

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pastic it'll surveys and we're talking

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about

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predicting the actions of a few humans I

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think the the news over the last couple

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years has shown us that predicting the

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behavior of large groups of humans is

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hard enough predicting the behavior of

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small groups of humans is even more

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difficult and and I think it's wise for

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us to have multiple options going into

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that kind of scenario so if all that was

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just NASA speak just take this away from

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it

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the goal of the high-back study is to

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find out what what a smaller scale NASA

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led mission looked like if it was

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specifically designed for to hunt for

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planets around our nearest stellar

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neighbors so that brings us to the

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science cases and I've gone over these a

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few times so I won't go over them in

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detail now but it's you know habitable

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exoplanets exploring in details our

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nearest planetary systems beyond just

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the habitable world and then the broad

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range of astrophysics and so a lot of

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that's driven by looking for this pale

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blue dot and I think people in this

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audience are familiar with this concept

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of not just characterizing it on its

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blueness as a color but

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spectroscopically in addition to the

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blue what what molecular absorption

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features does it have does it have a red

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edge does it have carbon dioxide oxygen

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methane water vapor and so on and so

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these are some simulations by kat fung

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whose I believe going to be speaking

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later in this session and Tye Robinson

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who I believe is also going to be

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speaking later in this session that

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shows what we could do I believe this is

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a 200 hour integration time on a fairly

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nearby earth-like world and and this is

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this shows you that we can in fact we

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think resolve some very important

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features like water and on and oxygen we

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are going to try to go out past one

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micron here so this is a simulated

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spectrum from point three two one

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microns we're going to try to go out

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past one micron but it's going to be

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sort of a best-effort if the mission

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won't be designed from the ground up to

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be optimized to operating past one

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micron and we'll do sort of the best we

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can given the technologies we have at

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the time and we're also worried about

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the false positives this is the part of

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the mission or the the study that's the

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most near and dear to my heart I don't

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want to spend a large amount of taxpayer

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money and the entirety of my career and

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most of many other people's careers and

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then call the President and say we found

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signs of life and then have you know a

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bunch of papers in the look in the

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literature a week later saying no you

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found interesting photochemistry that's

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not what I'm dedicating my life to

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so we want to know about those potential

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false positives that could trip us up in

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advance and we're incorporating that

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into the types of things we want to look

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for this is not a habit formal slide

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this is something that just is my own

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brainchild of how we might do an

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observational run on a particular planet

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starting with finding out if just if

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there's too much dust in the exoplanet

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system and if and if there is we've got

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a picture that does because there's

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science there and then we move on to our

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next target

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there wasn't too much dust to cloud out

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the the planets we would start to look

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for planets orbit had planets great and

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actually to be honest if it had planets

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we wouldn't know what planets they were

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at first we'd have to revisit multiple

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times to define the orbits and maybe get

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some colors of the preliminary

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characterization scheme but eventually

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we would determine whether or not any of

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those planets were rocky and in the

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habitable zone we'd get a low-res

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spectrum of those rocky worlds find out

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if they had water and we look at water

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first because it's got whopping big

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absorption features that should be

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relatively easy to to detect if it had

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water we'd start to get excited we'd

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look for oxygen at a higher of a medium

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or medium to higher spectral resolution

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of around 150 if we found the oxygen now

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we're starting to get really excited but

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now I'm starting to sweat about those

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false positives for life we get a long

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wave spectrum if we could well first of

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all we try to quantify the oxygen if

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that's too much that's bad news for a

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reason I don't have time to go into

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detail on which is a false positive

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indicator but if it didn't have too much

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oxygen we'd look at the long wave

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spectrum we'd look for a methane which

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is the great pair to have with oxygen we

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found the methane that's well honest I

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honestly we'd probably be cracking open

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champagne bottles like after every one

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of these steps but that's the one where

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I'd probably open the bottle of

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champagne and then take it down to I

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don't know the Bahamas or something and

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start planning my retirement because

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that's when I would be comfortable

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putting my name on a paper saying we

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found signs of life on an exoplanet at

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least me personally that as whether or

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not that applies to you that's up to you

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now as we're doing all this we're going

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to also be able to observe other kinds

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of planets a diversity of worlds in that

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system so even though we're looking for

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Earth's the way that the instrumentation

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is set up we'll also be seeing other

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pale dots that may not be blue and they

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may not be quite as small as Earth and

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we're going to get Jupiter's at a range

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of distances we're going to get

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Neptune's and these weird super sub

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Neptune things and we're going to get

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spectra on those things too

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and so even if you aren't convinced that

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the search for earth is what we should

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put all our chips in I mean we should be

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thinking about comparative planetology

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how Dex is going to do that as well and

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the other way to think about this is how

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Dex is really designed to do all this

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science in our local system it's it's

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not it's not the the mission that's

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going to do a survey of everyone to put

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another analogy out there it's not the

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thing that's going to do the survey of

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everybody in the United States it's the

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thing that's going to knock on doors of

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a few neighbors and find out what

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they're thinking

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because have X is really is really

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designed just to look for these kinds of

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planets and do this kind of science in

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our nearest stellar neighbors so we are

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going to do some general astrophysics as

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well and because this is a habitability

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session I'd oh not going to go into it

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but a lot of this is astrobiology too

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because one thing that I love about

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astrobiology it's not just about the

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search for life it's about sort of the

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history of life and the history of

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Astrophysical and cosmological

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conditions that led to the origin of

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life on Earth and we'll learn a lot

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about how stars form and how planet

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systems form and how galaxies form and

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evolve over time with the hab X or loop

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our life mission

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and we'll also do some cool planetary

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science astrobiology we'd be able to get

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better resolution on for example geysers

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from Europa are we coming up on my time

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here okay so this is just for scale we

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have Hubble on the left half X is going

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to be looking at two sizes we've already

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looked at a four meter which I'll talk

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about in a moment and we're also going

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to be talking about a six and a half

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meter version of had X in the future we

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haven't considered that in detail quite

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yet but this gives you a sense of how

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large something like this might be the

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six and a half meter would borrow from

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JWST so this would be somewhere in size

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four the four meter version between

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Hubble and Webb now this is not an eye

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chart I don't expect you to read it this

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is how we made decisions on what kinds

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of starlight suppression technology and

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major architectures we would use to find

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these have double exoplanets it's a

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difficult engineering problem and we had

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four major choices we were considering

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as a team we could have used a

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coronagraph which blocks light inside

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the path of the telescope to from the

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star so you can see the earth-like

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worlds we considered a star shade which

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blocks the life of four it hits the

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telescope that that there's some

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difficulty in making the star shade

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itself but if

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you can make a star shade you can use a

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dumber telescope to put it simply to

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find your planets then we considered

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something with two star shades where

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you'd use warm star shade to search for

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planets because the problem with the

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star shade is it sloughs and as it's

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slowing you can't search for exoplanets

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so we would have one star shade finding

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planets while another one was slowing

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maybe to your next target or slowing to

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that target to do characterization of it

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and we considered a mission with one

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star shade and one coronagraph and

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there's some advantages to that which

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I'll get to in a minute now that what we

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did was we had a series of musts that

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the mission had to meet a series of

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wants that we wanted it to meet a series

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of risks to the mission and a series of

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opportunities to the mission and the

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colors from blue green yellow red are

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from best to worst for each of the four

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architectures we are considering this is

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how we made the decision you can see us

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like we had data on the left and the

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make the trade makes matrix on the right

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filling this in as we went along through

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grueling days the thing that really

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drove our decision in the end was the

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science return and the best science

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return came from the combination of the

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coronagraph

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and the star shade so that's what we're

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going to go forward with that's news we

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just decided this on Friday in Boston

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and so we're going to the the first

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architecture for how the X will be a

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four meter monolith with both an

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internal coronagraph and an external

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star shade and that's nice because

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they're complementary coronagraphs are

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nimble while star shades can do deep

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broad observations spectroscopically now

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that does mean we're going to carry more

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technological challenges with us the the

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thing we're going to do there is we're

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going to talk about D scopes if we have

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to so that's where I'm going to close to

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take questions about this but I'd like

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everyone to just think about the

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astrophysics future that they want and

403
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to participate in the activities that

404
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are going to determine that thank you

405
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we have time for one maybe two questions

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that they're quick um could you oh do we

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have someone walking up nevermind God

408
00:13:24,180 --> 00:13:21,610
thanks Eric so is generous yeah no I

409
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just wanted to say great talk I just

410
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wanted to say that when I think about

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the difference between leVoir and have X

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I do just like to re-emphasize reham

413
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ffice i's the point that you made these

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you know we're doing deep dive into our

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neighboring systems and finding out like

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whatever is there including the

417
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habitable planets but there's so many

418
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other kinds of planets that will be in

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that same discovery space that getting

420
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to know our neighbors really well is a

421
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major focus for this concept which i

422
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think is super exciting personally even

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more so than the big survey thanks

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Maggie

425
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totally agree and I should point out

426
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when I showed the photo we have another

427
00:13:59,550 --> 00:13:58,420
astrobiologist on EST DT which is Thank

428
00:14:05,819 --> 00:13:59,560
You Turnbull who just asked that

429
00:14:07,620 --> 00:14:05,829
question okay

430
00:14:09,540 --> 00:14:07,630
well let's give Sean another round of

431
00:14:12,540 --> 00:14:09,550
applause do you have a quick question

432
00:14:14,939 --> 00:14:12,550
yeah and Sean have you guys also thought

433
00:14:16,319 --> 00:14:14,949
about a broader general juror program or

434
00:14:19,949 --> 00:14:16,329
is that just in the future you're too

435
00:14:21,269 --> 00:14:19,959
concerned we have are so one of the one

436
00:14:23,040 --> 00:14:21,279
of the trades we were looking at is the

437
00:14:25,019 --> 00:14:23,050
amount of guaranteed general

438
00:14:26,370 --> 00:14:25,029
astrophysics / gas observer time that

439
00:14:28,860 --> 00:14:26,380
the different architectures would enable

440
00:14:30,210 --> 00:14:28,870
the the star shade only missions or the

441
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two star shade missions had the most

442
00:14:33,840 --> 00:14:32,620
there because they while those star

443
00:14:36,120 --> 00:14:33,850
shades are slowing you're guaranteed

444
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guest observer time to do other kinds of

445
00:14:40,740 --> 00:14:38,620
science but that's a guarantee that's

446
00:14:42,329 --> 00:14:40,750
like if all US exoplanet scientists are

447
00:14:44,100 --> 00:14:42,339
super greedy there's an upper limit to

448
00:14:45,420 --> 00:14:44,110
the star shade driven missions to the

449
00:14:48,300 --> 00:14:45,430
amount of time we could we could even

450
00:14:50,100 --> 00:14:48,310
like try to get that doesn't mean that

451
00:14:51,240 --> 00:14:50,110
that the coronagraph missions with the

452
00:14:53,759 --> 00:14:51,250
chronograph and a star shade or the

453
00:14:55,949 --> 00:14:53,769
chronograph only couldn't also decide in

454
00:14:58,230 --> 00:14:55,959
the future to have a similar amount of

455
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guest observer science so how much guest

456
00:15:01,379 --> 00:15:00,160
observer sensor is is really a decision

457
00:15:03,689 --> 00:15:01,389
that would be made by a future

458
00:15:06,240 --> 00:15:03,699
astrophysics community I personally

459
00:15:08,040 --> 00:15:06,250
think more is better though that's

460
00:15:09,540 --> 00:15:08,050
related to our architectures in the to

461
00:15:12,449 --> 00:15:09,550
the extent that certain architectures

462
00:15:14,340 --> 00:15:12,459
guarantee a floor and would that be

463
00:15:16,079 --> 00:15:14,350
guaranteed also by having sorry we're

464
00:15:16,420 --> 00:15:16,089
gonna have to cut the exact you know I

465
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can

466
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more about that later yeah all right

467
00:15:20,180 --> 00:15:19,190
let's give shine another round of